Rates Still Rising. More Layoffs. Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer

This is an update to my older post. Homes are starting to come down and we are seeing it in undesirable places now.

Renters, hold off a tad bit longer before you buy a home and you can save a lot or even better, end up with a home you actually like.

Homes will hit lows in 20 months from now (2024).


I want to predict a market melt down in Q4 2022 – Q1 2023, but that’s another conversation.

  • Rates are still going to rise or stay at this level, home prices cannot be compared to what they sold last. Those are prices that people paid when rates were lower and thought home prices are going up.
  • People are now quietly getting laid off. https://layoffs.fyi/
  • Just glance over Redfin/Zillow. Homes are staying on the market longer. Sure, people will point out the few homes that sold right away, but generally..more are staying on the market. Ask your realtor.

Neysayers will try to discredit me, so don’t listen to me and do your own research, just look at the facts.

  1. Rising rates (don’t fight the fed)
  2. Continued layoffs
  3. Homes staying on the market longer

VERSUS

  1. Low supplies
  2. High demand
  3. Plenty of jobs and a lot of money flowing through the economy

Math Comparison for Rent vs Buying a Home

A typical 3 bedroom house in the SF Bay Area would cost $1.5m

Renting such typical house can be found for around $4,500/month.

Renting would cost $54000 a year.

If the home value drops by only 7% or $100,000, you come out ahead. This is excluding any sort of HOA, maintenance cost, property tax, interest charge, etc.

There are several economists and media posts predicting about a 20% drop.

Who should be buying a home in 2022?

of course.. if you find a home you love or are tired of having the landlord tell you how to live.. you won’t regret your purchase even if the price falls…. and heck.. homes have always gone up if you look at a 15+ year span of time right?

Stay strong renters…

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