Housing Bubble Collapse 2023. Prices Are Coming Down

This is a warning to any youngster thinking of buying a home now. Don’t listen to the older generation telling you home is always a good buy (it was for them, it won’t be for you buying at these ATH prices). Hold off 2 years (mid 2024) and buy a better home.

How will this play out? As a guy that’s been around the dotcom and the housing crash, it’s the same pattern.

  • X – People bragging at social events about their great investments
  • X – People that follow the investment advice
  • X – Market goes up for a while to get the rest in
  • X – People are buying homes not for the use, but for the ROI
  • X – Stock market starts to destabilize
  • X – Hiring freezes start
  • Smaller companies don’t get funding, they need to close
  • Black Swan Event. Something breaks. Some company bankrupts.
  • Ok, worst is behind us, stock market goes up a bit.
  • Layoffs begin
  • Government acts like they are stepping in
  • Stock market has a complete meltdown enough that main stream media talks about it all day, week, months
  • Housing will be ok right? I think a recession is here?
  • People start defaulting on their housing payments.
  • Home investors start selling their extra homes
  • Home prices start to fall and everyone starts heading for the exit.

During these 2 years, buy $SH + $PSQ and go on a vacation.

Come back, buy a home, get a job. Resume life.

Homes are still at all time highs, but once people start exiting, people will start dumping their extra rental / airbnb homes.

  • Rates are higher so people can afford less
  • Once people start getting laid off, they won’t be able to pay for the exorbitant monthly payments
  • and yes, layoffs are coming. Demand slows, stocks fall, company needs to get leaner so they layoff.
  • Let’s not forget many companies are allowing their workers to work at home or in other offices now.
  • Was the massive buying caused by foreign investors or tech folks? Doesn’t matter, both have taken a significant hit in the last year. Let’s also not forget how strong the USD is.

Be patient, rent is expensive, but it’s a small fraction of what you’ll lose to buying now.