Why are New Corona Virus Cases Going Up but Not The Death Count?

There is a debate whether Covid-19 is getting worse in the US or does it just seem so because testing is widely available.

President Donald Trump has mentioned several times that the corona virus is under control and that slowing down testing will bring down the numbers at his Tulsa, OK rally.

New Cases are Spiking, but Death Count Remains Low

New Corona Cases are now bad as March. Yes, as of June 25th, death count remains lower than new cases which seems to support the theory that the new cases are just inflated numbers due to more testing.

Death Count in the US

Covid New Cases Count in the US

But if we overlay the two, a clear picture appears

As you can see, death count trails about 10 days after the new cases.

In the next 2 weeks, we should see our death count spiking if President Donald Trump is incorrect.

Theory 1 : Death count will remain low. We have better treatment now and more people have antibodies

Theory 2 : There is a lag and we will see a spike in death count 2-3 weeks from now

What do you think will happen going forward?

Are the new cases just people testing more often or are we headed for rough times ahead?